OIL PRICE AND FIJIAN TOURISM CYCLE: A MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING MODEL

Non-Linear Relationships Among Oil Price, Gold Price and Stock Market Returns in Iran: A Multivariate Regime-Switching Approach

In this paper, the effects of oil and gold prices on stock market index are investigated. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model to examine the nonlinear properties of these three variables during the period of January 2003 - December 2014. The Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes representing "deep recession", "mild recession" and ...

Estimating Stock Price in Energy Market Including Oil, Gas, and Coal: The Comparison of Linear and Non-Linear Two-State Markov Regime Switching Models

A common method to study the dynamic behavior of macroeconomic variables is using linear time series models; however, they are unable to explain nonlinear behavior of the series. Given the dependency between stock market and derivatives, the behavior of the underlying asset price can be modeled using Markov switching process properties and the economic regime significance. In this paper, a two-...

Power Prices – A Regime - Switching Spot / Forward Price Model

Markov Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility

This is a project on modeling time-varying volatility of S&P 500 weely return for the years 1990 to 2012 using Bayesian methods. First, MCMC on the log-stochastic volatility (SV) model is implemented with simulation results analyzed. Second, I generalize the SV model to encompass regime-switching properties with the markov switching log-stochastic volatility (MSSV) model, under which, high-vola...

Autocovariance Structure of Markov Regime Switching Models and Model Selection

We show that the covariance function of a second-order stationary vector Markov regime switching time series has a vector ARMA(p; q) representation, where upper bounds for p and q are elementary functions of the number of regimes. These bounds apply to vector Markov regime switching processes with both mean-variance and autoregressive switching. This result yields an easily computed method for ...